When the American electorate goes to the polls, they vote for the whole person. I remember in the 2004 election a poll question emerged that read something like this,”which candidate would you most like to sit down and have a beer with”. George W. Bush obviously won that poll question because he was seen as a regular guy and John Kerry was perceived as too smart and too aloof to want to party with. I believe this has come about because a majority of the electorate is frankly too intellectually challenged to understand the nuances of the complexity of the issues facing this country. People vote on three things, the first two are real and the third is more ethereal. First, they vote on the state of their pocketbooks or wallets. Will a candidate be able to improve their economic situation. Second, will the candidate be able to keep us safe in our own homes. And the third factor is this “personality” thing. Is the candidate the kind of person I want to see on the news every day for the next four years?
In this election cycle, the importance of this third criteria has seemingly overtaken the first two. If voters were honest, more than half would tell you that they are voting this year against a candidate rather than for the other. The debates have attested to the fact that voters aren’t really concerned about policy proposals because if they were, the choice would be clear. No contest, election over. An interesting trend is beginning and I believe we will see it play out all the way to Election Day. Trump is losing support and I think he will continue to lose voters for one reason: women.
Bob Dylan said, ““I think women rule the world and that no man has ever done anything that a woman either hasn’t allowed him to do or encouraged him to do.” There is a lot of truth to this statement and I think a vast majority of women are now completely turned off by Trump’s “locker room talk” and will begin to exert their influence on their husbands and significant others to strongly re-consider their support of Trump. It won’t be overt but will more like a silent killer rather than a tidal wave. I do believe that Trump has a certain base of support and that base is probably around 30%. So if the polls are correct, Trump has about 5% more to lose which won’t seem like much but will set him on the path of the worst defeat in US presidential political history. I can’t wait to hear how “the Donald” spins that.