Polls, Polls, and More Polls
The day after Labor Day marks the official start to the road to the White House. As such, a plethora of new polls were released yesterday and here is some of what we learned. Some had Trump leading, most had Clinton leading, Americans like white bread and we’re eating more beets. Seriously, though, this election boils down to the results in just a few states. Let’s face it the Republicans have their strong holds where Democrats can never win and the same is true for Democrats. This election hinges on the results from Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida.
This election cycle has been difficult for pollsters mainly because of the changing demographics in certain states, and the changing lifestyles of Americans in general. If a pollster calls only land lines, guess what they are going to get? If they call cell phones, I would imagine the statistical rules are skewed as are online polls. There just doesn’t seem to be an effective way to reach a broad cross section of voters any more. Add to that the candidates themselves. It seems the majority of Americans don’t like or trust either of the major candidates and I can imagine some respondents are embarrassed to say they support either of them.
Here is what I take away from the recent polling. The race is tightening as we suspected it would. Ms. Clinton is competitive is some Republican states where she should not be and is leading in most of the swing states where Trump has to win if he is to have a prayer. The election seems to be Clinton’s to lose and the debates and the political wranglings in October will be crucial. If Mr. Trump can remain measured and appear sane for the next sixty days, this could be the political upset of all times. God help us all.
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