Political polling is an inexact science at best but professional pollsters seem to have a pretty good handle on it. Otherwise, they wouldn’t be so accurate so often. During the 2016 primary season, there were over 28 million votes cast in Republican primaries. Donald Trump managed to get just over 13 million of those votes. A record for a Republican candidate to be sure but realize that there were more votes cast against him in the primaries as for him. Historically, in non-incumbent Presidential elections, less than 50% of the voters turn out in the primary season. Based on the number of registered voters and primary turnout, I would venture to say that there will be somewhere around 135 million votes cast on November 8. If we assume that every Republican voter in the primaries votes for Donald Trump (which is a stretch in an of itself) and twice as many Republican voters go to the polls, that puts Donald Trump with a vote total of somewhere around 56 million votes or 41%
Based on what I see and read, Donald Trump has done very little to increase his base from the primary season. In fact, he seems to be alienating more people than he is attracting. I think Trump was counting on a number of Bernie Sanders voters to join his campaign but sadly for him, Sanders voters are not that stupid. Obviously, as the campaign wears on, the poll numbers will fluctuate here and there but if anything, Trump’s numbers will more than likely sink as more and more people are exposed to his vitriolic hate speech.
The most recent polls have Trump somewhere between 35 and 42% and those numbers are not likely to change significantly. If anything, I suspect his poll numbers to settle somewhere around 38%. There is often talk of an “October surprise” in Presidential politics but unless Hillary Clinton is anointed by Satan himself on national TV, I don’t see any surprise that would be able to make Trump a viable, realistic candidate for the Presidency. The good news is that Trump will lose, perhaps by an historic margin. The bad news is that it seems as though at least a third of the electorate in this country is crazy enough or pissed off enough to actually consider electing a deluded, egomaniacal, reality TV personality and dubious businessman with absolutely no political experience to the highest, most powerful position in the world. It doesn’t bode well for the future.